Of Exit Polls and Mail-in Ballots

Apparently a lot of Indonesians have never heard of voting by mail, thinking people can only vote on the day of the election instead of sending their ballot papers by mail.

There’s no mail-in ballots in the country but extensively used overseas where polling stations are limited to consular offices and embassies.

Worldwide exit polls for this month’s Indonesian presidential election have been released in defiance of the election rules which prohibit them from being announced until polling booths are closed in Western Indonesia on Wednesday.

Surprisingly all of the results gave a win to Ganjar and Mahfud MD, the least popular pairing across all domestic surveys, and by large margins.

In some cases the exit polls were conducted ahead of the actual voting day which differ from country to country, presumably based on those who cast mail-in ballots.

However, by no means it’s an indicator for the final results. Prabowo-Gibran are expected to sweep the election on Wednesday and they’ve been polling increasingly better by the week, exceeding 50% in some cases, which would negate the need for a second round in June.

By the way, overseas votes are counted as part of the South and Central Jakarta constituency, so they don’t matter as much in the national level.

Overseas exit poll results for the
2024 Indonesian presidential election

South America:
Ganjar-Mahfud 72.6%
Prabowo-Gibran 22.7%
Anies-Muhaimin 4.7%

Europe
Ganjar-Mahfud 56.5% 
Prabowo-Gibran 9.4% 
Anies-Muhaimin 34.1%

United States
Ganjar-Mahfud 40.4% 
Prabowo-Gibran 21.4% 
Anies-Muhaimin 38.2%

Timor Leste
Ganjar-Mahfud 63.9%
Prabowo-Gibran 26.3%
Anies-Muhaimin 9.8%

Hong Kong
Ganjar-Mahfud 54.2%
Prabowo-Gibran 31.6%
Anies-Muhaimin 14.2%

Australia
Ganjar-Mahfud 56.7%
Prabowo-Gibran 10.4% 
Anies-Muhaimin 32.9%