Google and the competition

This morning I found out that Google is removing support for Exchange Active Sync. This essentially cuts off proper Gmail services to Windows Phone. As the creator of Exchange, Microsoft isn’t keen on supporting the open alternatives to Exchange services but without such support, all consumers considering Windows Phone will hear is, “Windows Phone doesn’t do Gmail” or “Gmail sucks on Windows Phone” and then they’ll go running to iPhone or Android.

Google is cutting off Microsoft from its services because it knows that Windows Phone is a potential threat down the line. Cut it off early and Google has a chance to limit or even stunt its growth.

Don’t think you’ll be safe on iOS. By brushing aside Windows Phone, Google will only have iOS to deal with and currently it’s cozying up real tight to it, offering apps and services that work really well on Apple’s platform to get people to use them instead of Apple’s own. Before you know it you’ll be using all of Google’s apps on iOS which will give Google close to total market dominance.

If it can’t get certain people to use Android, it will get them to use as many of its services as possible that make up Android. If the threat is small enough, it will move to shut it down. Let me point you to Acer which wanted to use Alibaba’s Aliyun OS before Google issued a threat to expel Acer from the Android gang if it went ahead.

The only reason Google hasn’t harassed Amazon for its Kindle Fire is because it will face antitrust issues in the US and Europe if it does. Google has refused to acknowledge Kindle Fire as an Android variant despite Amazon having built its OS from Android and at this point, it can’t go further than that.

Once people who don’t use Android predominantly use Google’s services, Google will get them to jump in and switch to Android and when the number is high enough, it will cut off access from the remaining major competing platforms, which at this point may well be iOS only.

This is a real danger time for companies that aren’t immediate Google partners. In five or so years, without a strong competitive landscape, we’ll likely return to the days of Windows dominance over desktop computers with Android playing the Windows role.